5 big analyst AI moves: Microsoft upgraded; Micron, MongoDB started at Buy

Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.

InvestingPro subscribers always get first dibs on market-moving AI analyst comments. Upgrade today!

Microsoft upgraded at Oppenheimer on AI, cloud momentum

Oppenheimer raised its rating on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) stock to Outperform from Perform and set a new price target of $600, citing growing confidence in the company’s artificial intelligence strategy and sustained momentum in its cloud business.

“Investors’ attention on the ramp of Microsoft’s AI revenue stream will only increase as Azure’s growth remains strong,” Oppenheimer analysts wrote.

They see Microsoft’s AI business as a key source of valuation support, drawing a comparison to the role Amazon Web Services (AWS) plays for Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN )

While the market has priced in some of Microsoft’s AI upside, the analysts argue that “sustaining robust growth in its AI business is not fully in the stock,” and highlight the opportunity for Azure growth to reaccelerate in fiscal 2026.

Another reason for the upgrade is Microsoft’s strong business profile.

The company is described as “one of only a few vendors in the software industry capable of delivering a Rule of 60 business profile and at unprecedented scale,” referring to a balance of high growth and profitability. Oppenheimer sees this as justifying the company’s premium valuation.

With AI adoption expanding and Azure scaling further, Oppenheimer expects Microsoft to be “one of the long-term AI winners in software,” supporting a bullish outlook and potential re-rating of the stock.

Morgan Stanley’s new Amazon price target implies 34% upside potential

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Amazon to $300 from $250, implying roughly 34% upside from current levels.

The revision comes amid a more supportive macro environment and improving momentum in AWS. The bank also reiterated Amazon as its top pick and raised its 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts by 9% and 6%, respectively.

A key driver of the upgrade is a “more manageable tariff and geopolitical backdrop,” which led Morgan Stanley to reverse earlier EPS cuts tied to a 145% China tariff scenario. As a result, the Wall Street firm restored its 2026 EPS estimate to $8, returning to pre-risk-adjustment levels.

Morgan Stanley also sees a stronger path for AWS growth, underpinned by four factors. First, it expects a larger revenue contribution from AI startup Anthropic, where Amazon holds a stake. Analysts project Anthropic to generate around $10 billion in revenue in 2026 and $19 billion in 2027, potentially adding over 150 basis points to AWS’s growth.

Second, AWS’s core business continues to show resilience, even excluding Anthropic’s impact.

Third, trends in Microsoft Azure’s non-GenAI workloads suggest enterprise cloud spend remains healthy, potentially benefiting AWS.

Finally, Morgan Stanley points to survey data indicating Amazon is tactically gaining share in cloud budgets from Microsoft, Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL ), and Oracle (NYSE: ORCL ).

The firm now expects AWS revenue to grow 17–18% annually through 2026, with stable margins around 37%.

“This speaks to the significant upside to AMZN if the company can execute/gain share in E-commerce profitably through this uncertain period and AWS reaccelerates over the course of 2H:25 to durable highteens-to-20% growth,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.

The $300 target is based on a ~35x multiple applied to the average of the $8 and $9 EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027. The bank’s bull case envisions a $350 price, reflecting about 60% upside.

Wedbush: Tesla at its tipping point after Musk’s party announcement

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA ) current moment a “tipping point,” urging the company’s board to step in as CEO Elon Musk launches a new political party. Ives warned that Musk’s growing political ambitions risk becoming a major distraction just as Tesla enters a critical phase focused on autonomy and robotics.

“Tesla is heading into one of the most important stages of its growth cycle,” Ives wrote, stressing that the company “cannot have Musk spending more and more time creating a political party,” a move he says would consume significant time, energy, and political capital.

Musk recently announced plans to launch the “America Party,” which aims to field candidates in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Ives cautioned that this could conflict with the Trump administration and comes at a time when a “very important autonomous regulatory framework” is emerging.

To address the growing risks, Ives proposed three immediate steps for the board.

First, he recommends a new incentive-based compensation plan that would boost Musk’s voting power to around 25% and keep him in the CEO role through at least 2030. This structure, Ives said, could also pave the way for a potential merger between Tesla and Musk’s AI startup, xAI.

Second, the board should formalize time commitments to ensure Musk remains focused on Tesla operations.

Third, Ives called for a special oversight committee to monitor whether political endeavors interfere with his leadership.

“The Board cannot control Musk’s donations... but they can have oversight if his political ambitions/endeavors interfere with his role as CEO of Tesla,” the note said.

Ives emphasized Musk’s importance to Tesla’s long-term vision, especially as it pursues AI and robotics.

He said that Tesla, alongside Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ), is one of the “two best physical AI companies in the world,” and urged the board to take swift action to keep Musk at the helm.

Deutsche Bank starts Micron at Buy and $150 PT

This week, Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU ) with a Buy rating and a $150 price target, pointing to strong momentum in both cyclical and secular trends, particularly in High Bandwidth (NASDAQ: BAND ) Memory (HBM).

“We are constructive on both the cyclical and secular setup facing Micron,” Deutsche analysts wrote, highlighting HBM as a key growth driver.

The bank believes HBM is an underrated contributor to next-generation AI processor performance and expects rising bit demand and average selling prices to lift DRAM revenue and profitability above historical norms.

Micron’s HBM revenue, which was negligible in 2023, is projected to reach about 23% of total sales by 2026. Margins on these products are expected to exceed 60%, well above the 35% level for non-HBM DRAM.

Beyond HBM, the bank sees continued strength in traditional DRAM, supported by higher content per device and improved supply-demand dynamics. “We see a path to continued bit growth and ASP expansion in non-HBM DRAM in the coming years,” Deutsche said in a note.

While DRAM accounts for about 75% of Micron’s revenue, the bank was more cautious on NAND, which represents the remaining 25%. Analysts noted fewer content growth drivers and a less supportive market for NAND products.

Even after a 48% year-to-date rally in Micron shares, Deutsche Bank sees further upside. The stock trades at roughly 9x 2026 earnings, which Deutsche Bank considers attractive.

The $150 price target is based on a multiple of ~11x its 2026 EPS estimate of $14, in line with the company’s five-year median.

MongoDB stock “too difficult to ignore”: Wolfe Research

Wolfe Research initiated coverage of MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB ) with an Outperform rating and a $280 price target, highlighting a favorable setup, market tailwinds, and attractive valuation as reasons for its bullish stance.

While acknowledging the challenges of “defending decelerating growth with decaying margins,” analysts see an opportunity in the current setup, citing “improving execution” and industry trends that make the stock “too difficult to ignore.”

Despite a 10% decline in the stock this year, Wolfe sees MongoDB well-positioned at the crossroads of Enterprise Data Modernization and early-stage AI adoption. “MDB sits at the intersection of two powerful secular shifts,” the note said.

The brokerage expects top-line growth to stabilize and margins to improve, with its model suggesting high-teens margins and about $400 million in additional revenue next year.

Wolfe also emphasized the scale of MongoDB’s addressable market. “This is STILL a $120B+ market growing double digits… and Mongo is a TOP 5 vendor (#1 in Document Stores),” it wrote.

Investor sentiment, the firm noted, is shifting toward infrastructure companies with stronger unit economics. Infrastructure names are up 14% year-to-date, compared with a 2% decline in application stocks.

“In a market of Data > Apps… MDB stands as one of the few companies that fits the mold as a top 20 growth company (@ $2B scale),” Wolfe added, concluding that “Better numbers, Better narrative and Better margins [are] setting the stage for a Better stock.”

OK