Investing.com -- Trump’s threat to slap a 200% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, made offhandedly at a cabinet meeting, has sparked a selloff in some drug stocks, but analysts say the number may be more political posturing than economic policy.

He floated the figure while saying companies would have “about a year, a year and a half” to bring production back to the U.S.

Bernstein sees that as a crucial buffer. "It is certainly tough to know if 200% tariffs will ever materialize," analysts wrote, adding that such a move is “probably unlikely.”

The scale of the impact, potentially $600 billion in added cost on roughly $200 billion of annual pharmaceutical imports, makes it implausible as a blunt policy tool.

Even if enacted, industry response is expected to be swift and significant. Drugmakers like Merck (NSE: PROR ) have already been stockpiling in the U.S., with some inventory expected to last through 2027.

In the near term, Bernstein sees the threat as manageable. Imports of pharmaceuticals and chemicals spiked in the first quarter, a sign that companies are hedging against future restrictions.

GLP-1 drugs, such as those used for diabetes and weight loss, accounted for a substantial portion of that increase.

Still, the proposal raises questions about the future of global supply chains and U.S. protectionism.

Short-term distortions, such as a widening trade deficit with countries like Ireland, could follow, even as the long-term trend pushes toward more local production.

Bernstein downplayed the market’s knee-jerk reaction.

“We would be buying the dip,” the analysts said, pointing to Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY ) and Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD ) as top picks. While the threat of tariffs isn’t trivial, it appears unlikely to materialize at the scale or immediacy suggested, and the industry has time to adjust.