Gold prices pullback from record high above $3,120/oz as Trump tariffs draw closer

Investing.com-- Gold prices rose sharply in Asian trade on Monday, hitting a record high as safe haven demand was boosted by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering imposing broader and bigger trade tariffs this week.

The yellow metal had a strong run-up through March, hitting a series of record highs as investors turned increasingly risk-averse amid concerns over Trump’s tariffs and their economic impact.

Heightened fears of a U.S. recession also furthered gold’s advance, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting a 35% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months.

Broader metal markets mostly retreated, as did the dollar, which benefited bullion prices.

Spot gold raced to a record high of $3,127.88 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in June hit a peak of $3,160.14.0/oz. Both gold price indicators have pulled back from their peaks as of 09:50 ET (14:50 GMT). Spot gold is currently trading around $3,106, while gold futures is at $3,139.

Trump tariff jitters erode risk, boost gold

Gold was buoyed chiefly by increased safe haven demand, after a Wall Street Journal report said Trump was considering higher tariffs against a broader group of countries, as he prepares to announce plans for reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Trump has repeatedly touted April 2 as “liberation day,” and is set to impose tariffs matching those placed on U.S. exports by major trading partners.

Trump’s cabinet has touted a group of at least 15 countries that will be targeted, although the WSJ report said a greater number of countries was being considered. The report also said that Trump was considering a flat 20% tariff on all countries the U.S. has a trade deficit with.

Trump’s 25% tariffs on automobiles are also set to take effect from April 2, while his sector exemptions from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to expire on the date. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on semiconductors, key commodities, and pharmaceuticals.

Uncertainty over the size and scale of Trump’s tariffs decimated risk appetite, while driving safe haven plays into gold and the Japanese yen.

Other precious metals were mixed. Platinum futures steadied at $1,001.25/oz, while silver futures rose 0.7% to $35.065/oz.

Among industrial metals, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.3% to $9,747.50 a ton, while U.S. copper futures fell 0.7% to $5.0955 a pound, with the latter retreating further from recent record highs.

The red metal took little support from stronger-than-expected purchasing managers index data from China, the world’s biggest copper importer.

Copper was boosted through March on Trump’s threats of imposing 25% tariffs on the red metal, which could severely crimp physical supplies in the U.S.

US recession fears also boost haven demand

Risk appetite was also dented by increasing fears of a U.S. recession, especially as markets fretted over the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

Goldman Sachs said it now expects a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from prior expectations of 20%.

The investment bank also warned that Trump’s tariffs were likely to underpin inflation and undermine growth in the coming months. Goldman Sachs said it expects core PCE inflation- the Federal Reserve preferred inflation gauge- to surge to 3.5% by end-2025, while gross domestic product is expected to weaken to just 1% this year.

OK