Here's What to Expect From Bitcoin This September
- September 4, 2025
- Category:
Key Points
Bitcoin 's (CRYPTO: BTC) seasonal rhythm is one of those patterns investors love to argue over, but the historical performance data don't actually leave much to quibble about. On average, September has been a month when the coin tends to go down.
But could things be different this time? How bad could it be? And what should investors do? Let's answer each of these questions in detail.
September is usually a down month
Since 2013, on average, Bitcoin has declined by between 3% and 5% in September. Of the 15 Septembers since the coin's launch, 10 have closed the month in the red. And the worst of the prior 10 Septembers was in 2014, when Bitcoin lost 20% of its value.
So right off the bat, it looks more likely for the coin to decline this month than for it to rise.
Of course, there are exceptions to the trend. Bitcoin logged green Septembers in 2023 and 2024, with the latter up more than 7% -- but that performance is its second-best ever for the month. There's no rule that says the coin needs to repeat its historical behavior. In other words, treat this pattern as a piece of context for what to expect, not a forecast.
The more important part of the coin's seasonality is what tends to follow.
Historically, October and November have been two of Bitcoin's best months. Since 2010, October's average gain is near 29%, and November's is even better, at near 38%. Thus, most of Q4 tends to be quite bullish , though once again, there is no guarantee that the price will obey its historical trend.
Furthermore, Bitcoin is experiencing a cornucopia of bullish catalysts at the moment, which could potentially make the entire rest of the year into party time for holders.
Between dedicated crypto treasury companies and corporate treasuries buying it, governments opting to hoard it, massive inflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) , and a general widespread acceptance of the coin as an investable asset, there's a tremendous amount of buying pressure right now. At the same time, its newly created supply is dramatically outmatched by routine buying activity -- and this is the loosest its supply will ever be.
Be prepared to take advantage of any opportunity
Trying to catch a seasonal dip without any other investment planning is essentially trying to time the market. That's a game most investors are likely to lose most of the time, especially if they're holding cash on the sidelines and waiting for the perfect opportunity.